WEEKLY PICKS

 

Football is back and I think we all could not be more excited.  As most of you know I went to playing DK full time last season.  Yes, I still work at my other job, but I dedicate most of the season to research and building line ups.  The purpose of this e-mail list is to not only help you hopefully become a better player, but to also help me become a better player.

 

Let’s Get to it, shall we?

 

QB

 

So, let’s look at a few players I am staying away from.

 

Big Ben: He has a great matchup, gets another explosive WR back in Martavis Bryant, and has one of the best receiving backs in the league. I am staying away because he is $7,300, has bad home/road splits that have been consistent, and honestly, I think you can get the same points out of some cheaper options.

 

Eli Manning:  He draws a Sunday Night matchup against the Cowboys who do have some turnover in their secondary and were 30th in DVOA against the tight end last season.  However, his last two games have yielded 19.28 and 8.68 DK points.  His saving grace in the 19 point game was a 3 td performance as his yardage mark was only 207.

 

QB’s I Like

 

Cam Newton $7,100:  Cam Newton had a down season last year.  He also torched the 49ers last year for 34 DK points.  San Fran has gotten a new coach, new coordinators, and a new attitude. With that being said, they also ranked 28th in passing DVOA and have gotten two new starting CB’s.

 

Carson Palmer:  I do not play Carson Palmer.  I do not play Carson Palmer.  I do not play Carson Palmer.  So, if I don’t play Carson Palmer why am I playing him this week?  Detroit is a bad defense who ranks 29th against running backs catching the ball (you may have heard that they have David Johnson on their team), 26th against WR1, and 29th against the TE.  Arizona is passing team and I will take the old guy points before his arm falls off by week 4-5.  Also, Larry Fitzgerald draws Quandre Diggs who is basically a garbage can in the slot.

 

QB’s I also like (Deshone Kizer GPP ONLY which is code name for a tournament contest, Aaron Rodgers, Marcus Mariota and Derek Carr)

 

RB’s I Like

 

You have 1a and 1b with Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson.  Pick your poison.  I will be playing both in various line ups.

 

LeSean McCoy $8,200:  If you need to save money and can’t fit DJ or Bell in your lineup than I suggest going to McCoy and save some money.  Buffalo has no offensive weapons and nobody to threaten to take snaps away from Shady. I originally wasn’t on this train at the beginning of the week but the more I dug in the more I realized they are going to run McCoy until the wheels fall off.  He is there offense and will be running behind a very good offensive line that goes against a Jets team that might not be able to beat Eden Prairie high school.  Also, the Jets traded away their best run stopper in Sheldon Richardson so that opens even more opportunity.

 

Todd Gurley $6,000:  Yes you read that right.  Todd Freaking Gurley.  The guy who was a fantasy disaster is on my radar this week.  He is facing an atrocious (being kind) Colts defense.  The Colts D ranks as follows :32nd vs the Run and 31st against pass catching Running backs.  Also, the game script should favor Gurley as the Rams should be up (man what a time to be alive) or at the very worst be in a close game where Gurley should be getting a ton of work.  Remember touches = $$$.

 

Carlos Hyde $4,600:  He’s cheap and offers salary relief.  Kyle Shannahan likes to utilize his RB’s and he took the majority of the snaps in the preseason.  Carolina is very tough against the run but I expect that Hyde gets involved in the passing game a bit as well.  He only needs 13.8 DK points to hit his value and I think that’s doable.

 

Others I like (McCaffery *NOTE: Carolina is only had a 39% success rate to RB’s last year, B Powell, I. Crowell, and I’m looking at a super sneaky Theo Riddick play but I am only playing him in 1-2 lineups (I will have over 200 but I feel he might be sneaky because of game script/flow)

 

WR’s I like

 

Julio Jones $8,500:  Julio draws Prince Amukamara this week.  Amukamara is a recognizable name who signed with the Bears in the off season.  If he was elite, don’t you think the Jags would have went out of their way to sign him?  Julio dominates short and deep left and that is where the Bears D struggled last season.  Julio also averaged 3.13 yards per route run per PFF and that was tops in the league.  Plus 28-3.  The Falcons might want to make a statement.

 

A.J. Green $8,000:  Again here is someone I wasn’t on until late in the week.  I like Baltimore’s Def but I dug in a realized that AJ Green averages 6 rec over 100 yds and 1 TD against Baltimore, especially CB Jimmy Smith.  Andy Dalton was targeting A.J. Green consistently this preseason and I don’t think that will change.

 

Kelvin Benjamin $5,900:  Look I am going to ride or die with Benjamin.  He looks to be in great shape, has a massive size advantage, is now a full year removed from coming back from a knee injury and is Carolina’s top receiver.  His fantasy numbers were #notgood last year but like I said I am going to ride or die with him and I have a lot of Benjamin in my line ups this week.

 

Other WR’s I like:  P Richardson for a cheap punt, Kendall Wright for a cheap punt, M Bryant, both OAK WR’s, and Corey Coleman as a sneaky boom or  bust)

 

TE’s I like:

 

Look everyone is going to be on Zach Ertz.  He is really cheap and opens up so many more options.  I can’t argue with it.  It makes all the sense in the world.  I just have hatred towards Ertz.  Mostly because he has dudded more than he has produced.  I am torn if I conform and put him in or pay up at TE.

 

Delanie Walker $4,300:  Guess who still isn’t good against the TE?  Yep the Raiders.  They ranked 23rd last season against the TE.  The other thing working for him is Marcus Mariota and Walker have a good chemistry working together.  Mariota got a bunch of new weapons at the WR position this offseason but until we find out who the #1 is I am staying out of their WR corp.

 

Martellus Bennett $4,100:  Say what??  He is playing against Seattle and we don’t play players against Seattle’s defense.  Well do you know how you beat Seattle’s defense?  Thru the Tight End and WR2.  Seattle was 18th against the TE last season and A Rodg loves using his tight end in the passing game.

 

Others I like: CJ Fiedorowicz, Z Miller, Evan Engram)- Not super high on any of them

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